At the heart of the concept of Superforecasting is the idea that anyone, anywhere, can do something unexpected, even remarkable. Something that was perceived by others to be impossible.
At the heart of Upside is the same thing: we believe in, and are building a business around this idea. An idea can never be absolutely right or wrong, but normally somewhere on a spectrum, and can be measured and improved with practice.
We also believe that by putting together unexpected ideas, in unexpected ways, we can build something remarkable.
Odds are important to understand, but not to be defined by.
Ideas can come even from self isolation - just ask Isaac Newton, who discovered the laws of gravity and motion. Or William Shakespeare, who wrote King Lear.
Ideas don’t need to change the world, though. The Upside of offering help and comfort to relatives and neighbours who may be terrified and alone during the global lockdown is unquantifiable.
There is always an Upside.