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Predicting Flux

Published on 09/04/2020

Over the last three months the whole world has become interested in predicting the future, and it is a hard task. We are living in an unprecedented and unpredictable time, a time that even the superforecasters didn’t predict.

We rely on experts, who, as it turns out, aren’t necessarily that good at making predictions, as Kelsey Piper explains in a recent article. So we turn to superforecasters, those among us who are able to predict or at least guess much more accurately than the rest. What is interesting about this, and especially to us at Upside, is that these superforecasters are not domain experts.

This coincides exactly with Upside’s view on financial markets: experts are no more accurate than everyone else, they are just given more airtime, and in the case of finance often protected by jargon. Upside works on the premise that experience does not always equal skill in the investment world; in fact, sometimes the very opposite.

So, can we improve our prediction skills?

The answer is a resounding yes; and we are so sure of this we have built a business to help people do exactly that!

But how can we improve?

First we need to make specific but probablised guesses. These are based on research and fact, and are the basis of predictions. Each prediction needs to be weighted. Like a horse race or football score, what odds would you assign it?

Second, turn the argument over and pretend to be the other side, picking holes in your own thinking. Then revise your first set of predictions based on the outcomes.

Third, keep updating your progress. Predictions, like so many things in life, require small updates made often, not infrequent sweeping changes.

Finally measure everything, and detail the reasoning behind each prediction.

There is a science to being right. There is an Upside.

Come join the movement.

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