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Inferring a Prediction

Published on 30/04/2020

No one will make a big decision without a bit of research - whether it’s buying a car, choosing a holiday or making an investment.

It’s important to gather as much data as possible, whether that’s from official sources like the car manufacturer, the hotel you plan to stay at, or just from your mum - because often, she knows best.

Bayesian inference is a long standing statistical technique which is hugely complex, but the boiled down basic version asks for predictions to be updated as more information is gathered.

We use this every day without really realising it.

We go into the search for a holiday all gung-ho, looking for data from various sources before booking. Checking websites for everything from the size of the swimming pool, and the drinks at the bar, to the minutiae of the style of the soap dish. We look at pictures and read reviews. We ask friends and colleagues who may have travelled to that part of the world, modifying our prediction of the holiday we will have, based on the data at hand.

Will it be warm enough? Can we swim in the sea? Are the beds comfy? What is the food like, and how are the restaurants?

This is what we do at Upside too, but instead of cars or holidays, we teach our users to make predictions on investment ideas.

How will this prediction perform across various economic conditions, how will companies fare at earnings season or with the hiring of a new CEO? As things change, so do the predictions we make about them.

Backed by science and technology, we teach users to make educated guesses, so you can feel the warming sun on your face from a great holiday too.

Because at Upside, we know there is a science to being right.

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